Both presidential candidates want to crucify SEC Chairman Cox for failing to control our creative financial institutions. But rumor has it that Congress specifically excluded the devilish derivatives from SEC purview. Let's fire the right bunch of "poips" for a change!
Scary markets are brought about by many factors, some normal, and some not so normal. It's often helpful to look backwards before getting too paranoid about the present. The S & L crisis of the early 80s might be an appropriate starting point.
Later that decade, a multi-year rally had its head lopped off by high interest rates, high inflation, and a computer loop. Ten years later, another soaring market was toppled by economic factors. The turn of the century witnessed the bloody demise of the no-value-at-all dot-com illusion.
A profit taking strategy during the rally days was all that was necessary to cash in on "The Crash of '87". In 2000, the route to immunity could be summarized as: "no IPOs, no mutual funds, no dot-coms, no problem".
The common historical (hysterical) thread is clear. Rally begets correction; correction spawns rally. This time around, ironically, conservative investors had no trouble avoiding the derivatives that eventually sunk the markets. But, the products were so "out there", and the regulators so out-flanked, that the unwinding has unglued several investment world icons. This correction is different--- but not in the ways you might think:
The scope of media coverage, analysis, and sensationalism; masses of inexperienced, non-professional, speculators; and the popularity of investment products are new phenomena. Millions of nameless non-credentialed Internet investment experts and financial bloggers add to the pandemonium.
Similarly, the proliferation of passive investment mediums (index funds); regulatory tolerance of speculations of all forms, shapes, and sizes; and the relaxation of the trading safeguards that have protected investors for decades encourage a reckless, gambling approach toward what was once investing. We've seen what conscienceless commodity speculators have accomplished in world markets.
We have experienced a major movement away from plain vanilla stocks and bonds, and have popularized the thrill ride of speculative activities. 401(k) fund selections include short-long funds, currency trading strategies, and commodity futures. IRA investors seek out the most exotic forms of speculation, convinced that, with a Blackberry and a lunch break, they can master the complexities of high finance.
Regulators have allowed funds of hedge funds into small investor portfolios; brokerage firms short shares that don't exist multiple times; the once sacred up-tick rule has been abandoned when shorting itself should be a banned substance; and CDOs make it difficult to determine just who owes money to whom.
Enough? There's more, but you get the idea. Today's problems are much more visible than yesterday's. Today's worries involve bigger numbers. Tomorrow's solutions will undoubtedly bring creative MBAs to discover new financial WMDs. The investment gods are angry. We need to bring back that old time rock and roll, and an investment world content with individual stocks and bonds.
In less complicated times, the difference was in the fixing. Speculators suffered, but safer investment styles were less vulnerable. Let's elect a Congress that will regulate the speculations and allow us to get back to the basic, fundamental, adventure of building and protecting our nest eggs. Think back, just a few cycles ago--- familiar?
The Market was breezing along during the summer of '87, enjoying one of the broadest rallies ever experienced on Wall Street. From the very start, equity prices seemed incapable of going down. The mystical DJIA 2000 barrier was shattered early in the year and upward the market soared.
On through 2100 it rumbled, then 2200, and 2300--- even the comic strip, dartboard approach proved successful, and many subscribed to it. The securities markets were simple, with fewer labyrinthine products, and only the dark cloud of rapidly rising interest rates in an otherwise clear sky. 2400 on the DJIA by July and on it went. No end in sight.
The institutions introduced hundreds of new mutual funds, pumped up their marketing efforts, and pushed the rally skyward--- 2500, 2600, 2700, just incredible. None of the salivating mutual fund unit holders saw it coming; Wall Street didn't care. The Dow topped out at 2722 that August--- about the same number of points involved in a swinging September 2008. Only the names and the products have changed---
The parallels to today's markets are interesting. Value stocks and bonds were moving lower while IPOs and other speculations were bubbling higher. As prices weakened, analysts began to mumble. The economy certainly didn't look like a doom and gloom scenario--- just those pesky interest rates. And then it hit the fan.
Technology bombed the market when programmed-trading sell signals ran fast and furious down the cables, resetting themselves lower, and lower, and lower--- but the stock being sold actually existed! Wall Street panicked! Inflation fears, higher interest rates, tension in Europe, foreign oil, war in The Middle East, and so on. All of the usual suspects were touted by the media as the culprits that caused "The Crash of '87".
It just doesn't take a whole lot of Wall Street manipulation (or arrogance) to turn speculative greed into investment fear. The wizards had done it again, sucking the franklins from unsuspecting individual investor portfolios, just as they would two cycles later when their dot-coms sealed the fate of another generation of speculators.
Yes, the similarities are striking--- one meltdown to the next. But this time is slightly different. This time the Masters of the Universe were helped by Congress and the SEC to pick our collective pockets, and a few of them have actually, and appropriately, drowned in their own garbage. I'll shed no tears for the fallen giants, but let's all cry out loudly about the problem--- a problem that both Barack and John were a part of.
It's Congress that gets to chastise and create regulations for the bad guys. This year, and in those that follow, let's fire the DC fat cats that caused the problem, and find some regulators with the guts to label speculations as thoroughly as they do medications.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Differences between Spread Betting and Share Trading
Good Differences - Spread Betting Versus Trading
No taxes
Right now, there are no taxes on spread betting profits. No stamp duty, and no capital gains tax if you are fortunate enough to have a gain. This situation could change. The authorities in a number of jurisdictions are studying spread betting with a view to bringing it under the auspices of the same agencies that regulate mainstream investments. When this happens it is reasonable to expect that there will be some political pressure to impose taxes as well.
Going short is the same as going long
Short selling is when a trader takes the view that the market, or a particular stock, is in a downward trend, or the price is about to collapse for some reason. There are a number of mechanisms to allow this belief to be exploited. The most common are short selling of the share, and the purchase of PUT options. Of course, if you already owned the share it is open to you to simply sell it, or if you wanted to retain the stock you could sell covered CALL options.
Where short selling or the purchase of PUT options is contemplated, the trader will immediately come up against a number of obstacles. In order to sell short, the broker must be able to borrow the required number of shares to sell, until such time as the trader decides to close his or her short position and buy them back. This could prove to be difficult. In addition, certain shares will not be eligible for short selling at all. These will be securities that are already at a low price to begin with. In Europe, in particular, many brokers will not allow anyone to sell short.
As far as options are concerned, things are not always equal with regard to PUTs and CALLs. Very often, the most liquid market exists on the CALL side and, while you will not normally have great difficulty in purchasing your PUTs, there could be a problem in finding a market when you want to sell them. You could, of course, keep them to maturity, but this increases the risk.
In spread betting, all other things being equal, there is no difference between playing the long side and the short side, except that in one case you want the price to go up, while in the other you want it to go down.
Bad differences - Spread Betting Versus Trading
Transaction charges
It is often claimed that one of the advantages of spread betting is that there are no transaction charges like there would be if you were to deal with a normal stockbroker. This is true, but in many cases you would actually be better off financially to pay the broker.s charges, because spread betting effectively disguises the charge within the spread. We deal with the whole idea of the spread below.
Finite lifetime of the contract
This is a difficulty that also exists in regard to options, of course. Both spread betting contracts and option contracts will expire on a certain date. With options you get to choose the date, but for a price (of course). You can buy options with expiry dates that are more than a year away (these are known as LEAPs), or for certain months in between. The more liquid options can be purchased for expiry on almost any month of the year, while the less traded will have expiries in about three month cycles.
With spread betting there is normally only one expiry month available at any one time but, one way or another, the fact that a time will arrive, and in the near future, when your whole position could expire worthless, is something to bear very much in mind.
Limited securities where spread betting can be used
Financial spread betting companies are more interested in taking bets on the various stock market and other indexes than in the value of the shares of individual stocks. This limits the scope for their customers. One of the advantages of trading individual company stocks is that the trader can make quite informed judgments about the potential of the company.s share price performance based on its assets, cash and cash flow position, the markets it sells into and so on. Where indexes are converned, the only meaningful criteria are broad based economic indicators, such as interest rates and consumer sentiment. The individual investor.s potential for standing out from the crowd, so important for success in investing, is largely not present.
The spread betting companies make the rules
If you buy shares with the purpose of holding them for a relatively short period of time and then selling them, you will be engaging in the activity known as trading. The trader is set apart from the type of person who buys shares with the intention of holding them for a long period, perhaps forever, with the expectation of benefiting over a long period by having an income from dividends with a large capital gain in many years time.
As a trader, you will only have to worry about what the market does. There are very clear definitions of what you can expect to get when you decide to open or close your position. True, you will have a spread to contend with (the price at which you can buy from the market maker will not be the same at a given instant in time as the price at which he will buy from you) but this will be, to a large extent, transparent to the normal trader in a market with normal liquidity.
You will, in effect, be pitted against, and find yourself interacting with, the great body of other traders who are interested in the same securities as yourself. The market will dictate the outcome, for better or worse.
When you start dealing in equity or index options, the position changes. The spread then becomes a significant item, and you will be up against option contract expiry dates, as well as the market as a whole, but at least you are still dealing in a real market, unlike in spread betting.
By Andy Richardson
Financial Spread Betting
www.financial-spread-betting.com
No taxes
Right now, there are no taxes on spread betting profits. No stamp duty, and no capital gains tax if you are fortunate enough to have a gain. This situation could change. The authorities in a number of jurisdictions are studying spread betting with a view to bringing it under the auspices of the same agencies that regulate mainstream investments. When this happens it is reasonable to expect that there will be some political pressure to impose taxes as well.
Going short is the same as going long
Short selling is when a trader takes the view that the market, or a particular stock, is in a downward trend, or the price is about to collapse for some reason. There are a number of mechanisms to allow this belief to be exploited. The most common are short selling of the share, and the purchase of PUT options. Of course, if you already owned the share it is open to you to simply sell it, or if you wanted to retain the stock you could sell covered CALL options.
Where short selling or the purchase of PUT options is contemplated, the trader will immediately come up against a number of obstacles. In order to sell short, the broker must be able to borrow the required number of shares to sell, until such time as the trader decides to close his or her short position and buy them back. This could prove to be difficult. In addition, certain shares will not be eligible for short selling at all. These will be securities that are already at a low price to begin with. In Europe, in particular, many brokers will not allow anyone to sell short.
As far as options are concerned, things are not always equal with regard to PUTs and CALLs. Very often, the most liquid market exists on the CALL side and, while you will not normally have great difficulty in purchasing your PUTs, there could be a problem in finding a market when you want to sell them. You could, of course, keep them to maturity, but this increases the risk.
In spread betting, all other things being equal, there is no difference between playing the long side and the short side, except that in one case you want the price to go up, while in the other you want it to go down.
Bad differences - Spread Betting Versus Trading
Transaction charges
It is often claimed that one of the advantages of spread betting is that there are no transaction charges like there would be if you were to deal with a normal stockbroker. This is true, but in many cases you would actually be better off financially to pay the broker.s charges, because spread betting effectively disguises the charge within the spread. We deal with the whole idea of the spread below.
Finite lifetime of the contract
This is a difficulty that also exists in regard to options, of course. Both spread betting contracts and option contracts will expire on a certain date. With options you get to choose the date, but for a price (of course). You can buy options with expiry dates that are more than a year away (these are known as LEAPs), or for certain months in between. The more liquid options can be purchased for expiry on almost any month of the year, while the less traded will have expiries in about three month cycles.
With spread betting there is normally only one expiry month available at any one time but, one way or another, the fact that a time will arrive, and in the near future, when your whole position could expire worthless, is something to bear very much in mind.
Limited securities where spread betting can be used
Financial spread betting companies are more interested in taking bets on the various stock market and other indexes than in the value of the shares of individual stocks. This limits the scope for their customers. One of the advantages of trading individual company stocks is that the trader can make quite informed judgments about the potential of the company.s share price performance based on its assets, cash and cash flow position, the markets it sells into and so on. Where indexes are converned, the only meaningful criteria are broad based economic indicators, such as interest rates and consumer sentiment. The individual investor.s potential for standing out from the crowd, so important for success in investing, is largely not present.
The spread betting companies make the rules
If you buy shares with the purpose of holding them for a relatively short period of time and then selling them, you will be engaging in the activity known as trading. The trader is set apart from the type of person who buys shares with the intention of holding them for a long period, perhaps forever, with the expectation of benefiting over a long period by having an income from dividends with a large capital gain in many years time.
As a trader, you will only have to worry about what the market does. There are very clear definitions of what you can expect to get when you decide to open or close your position. True, you will have a spread to contend with (the price at which you can buy from the market maker will not be the same at a given instant in time as the price at which he will buy from you) but this will be, to a large extent, transparent to the normal trader in a market with normal liquidity.
You will, in effect, be pitted against, and find yourself interacting with, the great body of other traders who are interested in the same securities as yourself. The market will dictate the outcome, for better or worse.
When you start dealing in equity or index options, the position changes. The spread then becomes a significant item, and you will be up against option contract expiry dates, as well as the market as a whole, but at least you are still dealing in a real market, unlike in spread betting.
By Andy Richardson
Financial Spread Betting
www.financial-spread-betting.com
Advantages of the Forex Market
What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?
When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.
The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.
Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control
Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.
The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.
by Heather Redmond
When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.
The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.
Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control
Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.
The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.
by Heather Redmond
Choosing a Forex Broker
As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.
Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.
ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.
Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:
Market-Makers
Pros:
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* Usually give free charting software and news feed
* Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
* Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface
Cons:
* They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
* The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
* It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
* During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.
ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.
Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:
Market-Makers
Pros:
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* Usually give free charting software and news feed
* Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
* Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface
Cons:
* They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
* The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
* It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
* During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
Preventing Investment Mistakes: Ten Risk Minimizers
Most investment mistakes are caused by basic misunderstandings of the securities markets and by invalid performance expectations. The markets move in totally unpredictable cyclical patterns of varying duration and amplitude. Evaluating the performance of the two major classes of investment securities needs to be done separately because they are owned for differing purposes. Stock market equity investments are expected to produce realized capital gains; income-producing investments are expected to generate cash flow.
Losing money on an investment may not be the result of an investment mistake, and not all mistakes result in monetary losses. But errors occur most frequently when judgment is unduly influenced by emotions such as fear and greed, hindsightful observations, and short-term market value comparisons with unrelated numbers. Your own misconceptions about how securities react to varying economic, political, and hysterical circumstances are your most vicious enemy.
Master these ten risk-minimizers to improve your long-term investment performance:
1. Develop an investment plan. Identify realistic goals that include considerations of time, risk-tolerance, and future income requirements--- think about where you are going before you start moving in the wrong direction. A well thought out plan will not need frequent adjustments. A well-managed plan will not be susceptible to the addition of trendy speculations.
2. Learn to distinguish between asset allocation and diversification decisions. Asset allocation divides the portfolio between equity and income securities. Diversification is a strategy that limits the size of individual portfolio holdings in at least three different ways. Neither activity is a hedge, or a market timing devices. Neither can be done precisely with mutual funds, and both are handled most efficiently by using a cost basis approach like the Working Capital Model.
3. Be patient with your plan. Although investing is always referred to as long- term, it is rarely dealt with as such by investors, the media, or financial advisors. Never change direction frequently, and always make gradual rather than drastic adjustments. Short-term market value movements must not be compared with un-portfolio related indices and averages. There is no index that compares with your portfolio, and calendar sub-divisions have no relationship whatever to market, interest rate, or economic cycles.
4. Never fall in love with a security, particularly when the company was once your employer. It's alarming how often accounting and other professionals refuse to fix the resultant single-issue portfolios. Aside from the love issue, this becomes an unwilling-to-pay-the-taxes problem that often brings the unrealized gain to the Schedule D as a realized loss. No profit, in either class of securities, should ever go unrealized. A target profit must be established as part of your plan.
5. Prevent "analysis paralysis" from short-circuiting your decision-making powers. An overdose of information will cause confusion, hindsight, and an inability to distinguish between research and sales materials--- quite often the same document. A somewhat narrow focus on information that supports a logical and well-documented investment strategy will be more productive in the long run. Avoid future predictors.
6. Burn, delete, toss out the window any short cuts or gimmicks that are supposed to provide instant stock picking success with minimum effort. Don't allow your portfolio to become a hodgepodge of mutual funds, index ETFs, partnerships, pennies, hedges, shorts, strips, metals, grains, options, currencies, etc. Consumers' obsession with products underlines how Wall Street has made it impossible for financial professionals to survive without them. Remember: consumers buy products; investors select securities.
7. Attend a workshop on interest rate expectation (IRE) sensitive securities and learn how to deal appropriately with changes in their market value--- in either direction. The income portion of your portfolio must be looked at separately from the growth portion. Bottom line market value changes must be expected and understood, not reacted to with either fear or greed. Fixed income does not mean fixed price. Few investors ever realize (in either sense) the full power of this portion of their portfolio.
8. Ignore Mother Nature's evil twin daughters, speculation and pessimism. They'll con you into buying at market peaks and panicking when prices fall, ignoring the cyclical opportunities provided by Momma. Never buy at all time high prices or overload the portfolio with current story stocks. Buy good companies, little by little, at lower prices and avoid the typical investor's buy high, sell low frustration.
9. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Most investment errors involve unrealistic time horizon, and/or "apples to oranges" performance comparisons. The get rich slowly path is a more reliable investment road that Wall Street has allowed to become overgrown, if not abandoned. Portfolio growth is rarely a straight-up arrow and short-term comparisons with unrelated indices, averages or strategies simply produce detours that speed progress away from original portfolio goals.
10. Avoid the cheap, the easy, the confusing, the most popular, the future knowing, and the one-size-fits-all. There are no freebies or sure things on Wall Street, and the further you stray from conventional stocks and bonds, the more risk you are adding to your portfolio. When cheap is an investor's primary concern, what he gets will generally be worth the price.
Compounding the problems that investors face managing their investment portfolios is the sensationalism that the media brings to the process. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Investing is a personal project where individual/family goals and objectives must dictate portfolio structure, management strategy, and performance evaluation techniques.
Do most individual investors have difficulty in an environment that encourages instant gratification, supports all forms of speculation, and gets off on shortsighted reports, reactions, and achievements? Yup.
Losing money on an investment may not be the result of an investment mistake, and not all mistakes result in monetary losses. But errors occur most frequently when judgment is unduly influenced by emotions such as fear and greed, hindsightful observations, and short-term market value comparisons with unrelated numbers. Your own misconceptions about how securities react to varying economic, political, and hysterical circumstances are your most vicious enemy.
Master these ten risk-minimizers to improve your long-term investment performance:
1. Develop an investment plan. Identify realistic goals that include considerations of time, risk-tolerance, and future income requirements--- think about where you are going before you start moving in the wrong direction. A well thought out plan will not need frequent adjustments. A well-managed plan will not be susceptible to the addition of trendy speculations.
2. Learn to distinguish between asset allocation and diversification decisions. Asset allocation divides the portfolio between equity and income securities. Diversification is a strategy that limits the size of individual portfolio holdings in at least three different ways. Neither activity is a hedge, or a market timing devices. Neither can be done precisely with mutual funds, and both are handled most efficiently by using a cost basis approach like the Working Capital Model.
3. Be patient with your plan. Although investing is always referred to as long- term, it is rarely dealt with as such by investors, the media, or financial advisors. Never change direction frequently, and always make gradual rather than drastic adjustments. Short-term market value movements must not be compared with un-portfolio related indices and averages. There is no index that compares with your portfolio, and calendar sub-divisions have no relationship whatever to market, interest rate, or economic cycles.
4. Never fall in love with a security, particularly when the company was once your employer. It's alarming how often accounting and other professionals refuse to fix the resultant single-issue portfolios. Aside from the love issue, this becomes an unwilling-to-pay-the-taxes problem that often brings the unrealized gain to the Schedule D as a realized loss. No profit, in either class of securities, should ever go unrealized. A target profit must be established as part of your plan.
5. Prevent "analysis paralysis" from short-circuiting your decision-making powers. An overdose of information will cause confusion, hindsight, and an inability to distinguish between research and sales materials--- quite often the same document. A somewhat narrow focus on information that supports a logical and well-documented investment strategy will be more productive in the long run. Avoid future predictors.
6. Burn, delete, toss out the window any short cuts or gimmicks that are supposed to provide instant stock picking success with minimum effort. Don't allow your portfolio to become a hodgepodge of mutual funds, index ETFs, partnerships, pennies, hedges, shorts, strips, metals, grains, options, currencies, etc. Consumers' obsession with products underlines how Wall Street has made it impossible for financial professionals to survive without them. Remember: consumers buy products; investors select securities.
7. Attend a workshop on interest rate expectation (IRE) sensitive securities and learn how to deal appropriately with changes in their market value--- in either direction. The income portion of your portfolio must be looked at separately from the growth portion. Bottom line market value changes must be expected and understood, not reacted to with either fear or greed. Fixed income does not mean fixed price. Few investors ever realize (in either sense) the full power of this portion of their portfolio.
8. Ignore Mother Nature's evil twin daughters, speculation and pessimism. They'll con you into buying at market peaks and panicking when prices fall, ignoring the cyclical opportunities provided by Momma. Never buy at all time high prices or overload the portfolio with current story stocks. Buy good companies, little by little, at lower prices and avoid the typical investor's buy high, sell low frustration.
9. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Most investment errors involve unrealistic time horizon, and/or "apples to oranges" performance comparisons. The get rich slowly path is a more reliable investment road that Wall Street has allowed to become overgrown, if not abandoned. Portfolio growth is rarely a straight-up arrow and short-term comparisons with unrelated indices, averages or strategies simply produce detours that speed progress away from original portfolio goals.
10. Avoid the cheap, the easy, the confusing, the most popular, the future knowing, and the one-size-fits-all. There are no freebies or sure things on Wall Street, and the further you stray from conventional stocks and bonds, the more risk you are adding to your portfolio. When cheap is an investor's primary concern, what he gets will generally be worth the price.
Compounding the problems that investors face managing their investment portfolios is the sensationalism that the media brings to the process. Step away from calendar year, market value thinking. Investing is a personal project where individual/family goals and objectives must dictate portfolio structure, management strategy, and performance evaluation techniques.
Do most individual investors have difficulty in an environment that encourages instant gratification, supports all forms of speculation, and gets off on shortsighted reports, reactions, and achievements? Yup.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
The Cycle Of A Trend
The Cycle Of A Trend
In this lesson we are going to look at the different stages of a trend and how it can help you position yourself for a trade.
It is commonly accepted that there are four stages of a trend. These stages make up a cycle and each cycle has smaller cycles contained within them.
It doesn't matter whether you like to trade with 5-minute charts or monthly charts. Each market will be in some stage of the cycle as you are observing it.
Before you even think about getting into a trade you should have some idea of where the market is in the cycle.
This will help you avoid making the wrong entry.
For example, if you have identified stage two of the cycle it doesn't make sense for you to be short in an up stage.
If you look at the chart below you can see the 4 different stages clearly marked.
Stage One
The start of the cycle (stage one) is where there is very little happening and the market is generally flat. At this stage the market is normally oscillating in a certain range. As this stage ends you often see a breakout of the previous range. The breakout can often be explosive particularly if it has been in consolidation for a long period of time. For markets that can measure volume an increase of volume is an early indication that the breakout is real.
Stage Two
Stage two is after the breakout has occurred and we begin to head North. Depending on the force of the move the market may rally and not come back to the breakout point or it may come back and test that area.
In the chart example the market broke out of the range and then rallied to R1 where it began to retreat to S1. These two points are very important. If S1 were lower than the breakout point or S1 were to rally slight but still remain below R1 then break back down past S1 then the start of the cycle would be in doubt.
What actually happened was that the market came down to S1 and then rallied past R1. The aggressive trader would already have taken a position on the breakout and most likely add to the position as R1 was taken. If you had not entered the market yet then this would be an ideal opportunity to jump in.
The second point to note is that the moving average began to turn up after the breakout giving further support to the beginning of the cycle.
In the case of the chart example I have selected a simple 40 period moving average of the closes. You can use any moving average that suits the time frame you are dealing in.
Stage two continues making higher peaks and higher valleys and may come back to test the moving average a few times.
Stage Three
Stage three is the final thrust of the cycle. You may notice a spike or a double top formation as the trend begins to run out of steam.
In our example the top is fairly flat. R2 is formed and the market retreats to S2. What happens next is the opposite of the start of the cycle. The market stops at S2 and then rallies slightly. The fact that the rally did not exceed R2 is what is significant. Instead the market only reached R3.
As soon as the market broke through S2 it signified the end of the trend. You would also note that the moving average turned down at this point further give support to the end of the up move. If the top was not easily identifiable and positions closed at that time then once S2 was taken any long positions would have been closed.
Stage Four This is the final stage of the cycle and perhaps the most interesting. Depending on market conditions some traders may now go short. A potential shorting point would have been on the break of S2. The market in our example is making lower valleys and lower peaks. This tells us that there is now a move to the downside.
Before initiating a short on the break of S2 you could measure the start of the whole move at the beginning of the cycle to where the market topped at stage three. You could then calculate the 61.8% retracement (see lesson on Fibonacci).
This would give you a downside target to aim for and if there was enough meat left in the trade initiate a short trade. Stage four can be difficult as the market may either go into consolidation again or continue down.
So how can this help your trading? Well, the first thing to do before you enter a trade is decide where in the cycle you are. If you are at stage two then it could be dangerous to go short. It could also be dangerous to enter short if stage two had been building for a long time. Remember the market can't go up for ever.
On the other hand if we were entering stage four you wouldn't want to be long. Just by identifying the different stages of the market it can help you lock in profits, make better judgments decisions on whether you should be in the market at all and perhaps give you clues for entry and exits.
Good Trading
Mark McRae
A Different Type of Moving Average Cross by Mark Mc Rae
Virtually every trader has dabbled with or experimented with some sort of moving average. What I want to introduce you to in this lesson is a different sort of moving average cross method, which I have found to be very good at identifying short term trend changes. As we know a moving average is normally plotted using the close of a bar e.g. if you were plotting a 3 period moving average, then you would add the last three closes and divide the total by three to get a simple moving average. |
This is where I want you to think a little differently. I have always been an advocate of taking traditional thinking and changing it around. What if you used the open instead of the close? What if you used the close of one period of a moving average and the open of another?
First, most charting packages will allow you to use the open, high, low or close to plot a moving average.
In the example below of the daily Dow Jones, I have used a 5 period exponential moving average of the close and a 6 period exponential moving average of the open. As you can see it catches the short term trend changes really nicely.
In the next example of the 1 hour EUR/USD, you can see that the close/open combination worked really well. Of course you will go through periods of consolidation with any market and any moving average method you use will be whipsawed. To get around this you need some sort of filter or approach that helps you keep out of the low probability trades.
You could use ADX, Stochastic or MACD to help filter the noise but I also like to add a time frame.
In the next example of the 4 hour GBP/USD you can see that on the 24th September 04 at 4:00 there was a cross of the 5 period exponential moving average of the close above the 6 period exponential moving average of the open. This signal has remained in place until today as I write on the 27th September.
Although there was a signal on the 4 hour, to help identify even better entry points you can drop down a few time frames to the 30 minute chart. As you can see from the 30 minute chart there have been quite a few crosses of the 5 period exponential moving of the close above or below the 6 period exponential moving average of the open.
There are lots of ways to trade this but a neat little trick is to wait for the signal on a higher time frame and then drop down a few time frames and wait for a pullback. The first signal after the pullback on the lower time frame is normally a pretty good entry point e.g. If there were a cross up on the large time frame then drop down to a lower time frame and wait for the market to retrace and then give another buy signal (cross up). The opposite is true for short signals. Once you get the signal on the shorter time frame depending on where support is you can usually place your first stop loss under the nearest support area (valley). If the market begins to make progress you can move your stop so that it trails the market by moving your stop to just under the most recent support area. In this lesson I have use an exponential moving average but experiment with different types of average such as weighted, smoothed or simple. You can also experiment with different lengths of moving average. Good Trading Best Regards |
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